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Folding or calling river?

Keskustelu osiossa 'Hand analysis' , aloittajana Christian, 6.3.2017.

  1. Christian

    Christian Active Member

    Liittynyt:
    9.7.2015
    Viestejä:
    106
    Saadut kiitokset:
    71
    Hey Guys,
    that was the first hand of a 15$ on demand SNG on pokerstars. Opponent was a very good aggressive REG. I thought against his range it should be -ev in a long run to call river there, but I'm a bit unsure.
    In general theese sng's are very fishy and I don't want to waste my stack early in the game, because there are always more profitable spots against bad players later.


    Poker Stars, $13.77 Buy-in (10/20 blinds, 3 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
    Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

    SB: 1,500 (75 bb)
    BB: 1,500 (75 bb)
    MP1: 1,500 (75 bb)
    MP2: 1,500 (75 bb)
    MP3: 1,500 (75 bb)
    Hero (CO): 1,500 (75 bb)
    BTN: 1,500 (75 bb)

    Preflop: Hero is CO with T[​IMG] T[​IMG]
    MP1 folds, MP2 raises to 60, MP3 folds, Hero calls 60, 2 folds, BB calls 40

    Flop: (211) T[​IMG] K[​IMG] J[​IMG] (3 players)
    BB checks, MP2 bets 150, Hero calls 150, BB folds

    Turn: (511) 9[​IMG] (2 players)
    MP2 checks, Hero checks

    River: (511) 6[​IMG] (2 players)
    MP2 bets 363, Hero folds

    Results: 511 pot
    Final Board: T[​IMG] K[​IMG] J[​IMG] 9[​IMG] 6[​IMG]
    MP2 mucked and won 511 (298 net)
    Hero mucked T[​IMG] T[​IMG] and lost (-213 net)
     
    Tagit:
  2. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

    Liittynyt:
    30.10.2013
    Viestejä:
    3 769
    Saadut kiitokset:
    3 706
    When he uses pretty big sizing it probably polarize his range into straight or bluff. If he tried to go for value with sets or KJ it would likely be smaller bet.

    One problem is flop texture which is usually not cbet that wide. Like if he has 88 it would often be check-fold. So question is what type of hands he is cbetting and then turning into bluff? Some AJ, AT, AK, AA perhaps?

    Important question is also if he would check turn with Q? It's possible as getting value from reg by betting turn and river is difficult and set is somewhat unlikely for you. Set should be bluff catching turn often with good amount of pretty nutty outs.

    What you think villain will assume after you checking turn? How often if ever you are checking Q? Point being that if you often bet turn with Q this TT is basically absolute top of your range. So if you don't call it then you are practically always folding river. You also say villain is aggro good reg so I would personally bluff catch this always without really good read.
     
    • Kiitos Kiitos x 1
  3. YOULOSTBRO

    YOULOSTBRO Well-Known Member

    Liittynyt:
    1.11.2013
    Viestejä:
    1 109
    Saadut kiitokset:
    1 021
    at least consider betting the turn

    as played always call river
     
    • Kiitos Kiitos x 1
    • Samaa mieltä Samaa mieltä x 1
  4. Christian

    Christian Active Member

    Liittynyt:
    9.7.2015
    Viestejä:
    106
    Saadut kiitokset:
    71
    Thx guys for your answers. That's what was going through my head. I thought he never gives me a set of TT and that I'm pretty underrept because I only called preflop, flop and checked turn behind. So I think you are right that I should call river 100% as played.
    His turncheck and riverbet sizing seemed pretty polarized to me. I would play any Q like this vs reg if I where him. His big flop sizing is an indicator that it's unlikely he has AQ!
    KQ, QJ, QT, QQ is possible. I think it's unlikely that he would turn any 2 pair or sets into bluff but maybe I'm wrong. I think only hands that he maybe turns into bluffs are AJ, AT, Ax type of hands, because he should give me some top pair or 2 pair type of hands that want to go to sd cheap.
    Another question is, if he never gives me a Qx because of my turncheck is he going for big value on river with better sets and maybe some 2 pair combos?
    I didn't bet turn because of the possibility of getting checkraised. If he checkraises turn all in I can't call. But I want to go to sd because I have much equity. But like I said you guys are right, I have to call the river there as played, because my turncheck behind should induce him to bluff often enough.
     
  5. Ghaleon

    Ghaleon Well-Known Member
    Poker Coach

    Liittynyt:
    30.10.2013
    Viestejä:
    3 769
    Saadut kiitokset:
    3 706
    I think betting turn is most of time going to be thin at best but can be ok. Likely not that many weaker hands villain is going to call. Questionable how many KT or KJ combos he has in preflop opening range or if he is calling turn with AK or AA type of hand. In hero range there is likely not much hand like AA beat that call preflop and flop and bet turn. At same time he could be easily taking check-call line with higher sets and sometimes Qx. So I think danger in betting turn is going to be value towning yourself.

    Obviously some Qx should be bets as well in turn if he likes to have semibluffs. Though board has no flush draw which is decreasing that.

    I would disagree that villain bet size would make AQ less likely.
     
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